«Let me tell you about the current situation involving America and the low-intensity civil war»
Have all Americans gone mad? It is a question I often hear when I meet readers of my books or my SkyTg24 followers. It has to do, of course, with recent news: Donald Trump's victory in 2016, the 'Big Lie' of the stolen election, the storming of Capitol Hill on 6 January 2021, a president dumped by his party and his predecessor on trial, the subject of condemnation and then even in the crosshairs of a bloody bomber.
The US Constitution was ratified in a pre-democratic era when concerns of those drafting constitutions were more focused on the whims of the majority rather than on the claims of the minority. The majority, after all, represented the people themselves. It was supposed to be fickle and not very rational. To handle this threat, the founding fathers agreed on a variety of anti-majority mechanisms which eventually into a more comprehensive and extensive set. The most substantial example involving the electoral system concerns, in particular, the staggered planes on which the popular vote and the ballot box response move. The characteristics of electoral districts, the way they are drawn, and the ideological and demographic differences between rural and urban areas mean that one of the two camps - nowadays the democratic one - needs a much larger majority than the simple 'fifty per cent plus one' of the voters to impose itself. It is mainly for this reason that for some years now a particularly fierce minority of Americans, the Trumpian minority, has managed to hold in check the majority of the population, custodians of much more moderate ideas than those that the Italian public has lately tended to associate with US citizens.
The United States is in the grip of a radical polarization that has divided the country for some time and has only worsened over time
I know what you are thinking. In cases where institutional mechanisms are not effective, could they be reformed? Theoretically yes, they can. However, in practice, this requires collaboration, mutual respect and a shared purpose. These elements are exactly what is lacking in America today. Divisions hinder the ability to change flawed rules. In turn, flawed rules exacerbate divisions. This creates a proverbial vicious circle. The United States have been in the grip of a radical polarization, which divided the country for some time and only deepened over time. With the onset of the Trumpian era, the cracks that marked society became evident. However, in reality, the origin of these dynamics go back to the Civil War, through the battles for civil rights of the 1960s, suffering the employment repercussions of globalisation and manufacturing relocation, intertwining with the malaise of the post-9/11 wars, fuel the Tea Party revolt after Obama's election, and finally delivering a fragile and disoriented Republican Party to Donald Trump.
Please forgive me if the summary sounds extreme, if not even brutal. Who exactly are the Trumpian people made up of? They are not only white people however skin colour plays a role in their identity. In 2022, according to the Pew Research Center, ethnic minorities made up just 15% of the Republican electorate. They are not just citizens in economic distress, yet money somehow has something to do with it. According to Harper's Index in 2019, there were sixteen congressional districts represented by Republicans among the nation's twenty least wealthy, and twenty, as well, were those wealthiest represented by Democrats: totality. Despite Trumpians found in areas beyond the southern states, it seems that geographic location plays a role. Furthermore, according to Harper's Index, between 2008 and 2019, Republicans won 97% of the elections held in the Deep South.
Some people raised concerns about a new Civil War, but they primarily refer to a state of hidden and widespread violence
What unites the Trumpians, however, is above all a shared sense of dispossession. A portion of the American population believes it represents the most authentic essence of the country and harbours a sense of impending doom due to what they perceive as a coordinated attack by corrupt Democrats, scheming Republicans, unscrupulous foreign powers, and ruthless, self-serving tyrants on the verge of obliterating the nation. Some have managed to capitalize on this resentment, often inelegantly but with genuine conviction. In my essay 'America Contro" (literally: 'America Against'?, I refer to them as purveyors of hate, and to serve their interests they play with fire. Some have brought up the risk of a new Civil War, but don't think in the traditional sense of organized armies, regular uniforms and clear front lines. It mostly refers to a state of potential and widespread violence. Jeremi Suri, a professor in Austin, entitled his essay on the crisis of American democracy: 'Civil War by Other Means'. Barbara F. Walter, In her essay 'How Civil Wars Start' suggested that civil wars are often instigated by "those who previously held privilege and now feel deprived of a status they believe they are still entitled to".
The low-intensity civil war that has been ongoing in America for years, now, is led by the loss of status. It revolves around factual issues: inflation, abortion, gun control, and immigration. However it is above all a question of ideals, and public culture addressing the definition of what it means to be an American, setting the concept of common good, guiding the direction of the country, and designating its founding myths. James Davison Hunter wrote: 'you never have a shooting war without a culture war prior to it, as culture provides justifications for violence'. The word Cultus in Latin means 'what we hold sacred'. And who would ever come to terms with what they hold sacred? According to a PBS poll last April, one in five Americans believes that citizens may have to resort to violence to get the country back on track. The upcoming election will not be the sole event to resolve the ongoing confrontation.
America's inner conflict will persist beyond November 5th. We will still be in the Trump era, regardless if Trump does not win.